Infallible or not so Infallible? 1,000 Guineas Analysis!

This Sunday will see the 2^nd classic of the flat season. It is the turn of the fillies who will run in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket over a mile.

 John Gosden’

s Infallible heads the market and is a worthy favourite, having walked away with the Nell Gwyn stakes by 3 and ½ lengths over course and distance. Not only has Infallible won her last race at Newmarket, both her victories have come here, so that gives this horse a massive advantage. Also she has stepped up considerably on her maiden victory and is sure to improve again and must go close on the forecast good ground, which she has won on, on both her victories.

The leading contenders would appear to be Muthabara of John Dunlop and Natagora of Pascal Barry. Muthabara has won on both soft and good ground. She came back from an injury to win the Fred Darling stakes at Newbury. What was impressive about this victory was that she seemed to wander and never really travelled, but the turn of foot was very impressive and she coasted to a 1 ¼ length victory. Also the extra furlong at Newmarket should suit her and this is a very live contender if she can travel better in running.

The final contender is Natagora. You always have to be aware of horse that comes from France given their very good record in this country.

Natagora has more experience than her other two rivals and has only been beaten once in 5 races which was on soft ground in Deauville. Natagora has already won at Newmarket, all be it that it was over 6 Furlongs. This longer trip will most certainly suit and so will the forecast good ground. Her most recent victory came at Maisons Lafeitte where she beat Modern Look by 1 ¼ lengths.

After taking all these factors into consideration but it is very difficult to split the three of them. Both Infallible and Natagora have course form, and Muthabara coming back from injury and showing a change of speed. I think Infallible’

 

s win in the Nell Gwyn stakes is the most impressive of the three therefore I would select this horse to win and Muthabara to follow her home.

I would recommend 5 points win on Infallible at 7/2 with Tote and 2 points forecast Infallible and Muthabara (7/2 and 9/2  with Tote). If you open up an account with Tote today then you will receive a free £25 bet.